Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kais Ben Mbarek
Author-Email: kais.benmbarek@fsjegj.rnu.tn
Title: Sovereign debt sustainability in MENA countries: Determinants and policy implications
Abstract: This paper examines sovereign debt sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by comprehensively analyzing macroeconomic, institutional, and geopolitical determinants. Using a panel dataset of 15 MENA countries spanning 2000-2023, we employ dynamic panel estimation techniques to identify key factors affecting debt sustainability. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity across the region, with oil-exporting countries demonstrating distinct debt dynamics compared to oil-importing nations. Institutional quality and governance indicators emerge as critical predictors of debt sustainability beyond traditional macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, our threshold analysis identifies specific debt-to-GDP levels at which growth effects become negative, varying substantially across country groups. The results underscore the importance of tailored policy approaches to regional debt management, challenging one-size-fits-all recommendations from international financial institutions. This research contributes to the literature by developing a novel composite debt sustainability index and providing empirical evidence on the region-specific determinants of sustainable sovereign debt management.
Keywords: sovereign debt, fiscal sustainability, MENA economies, debt management, institutional quality, economic diversification, threshold effects
Journal: Modern Finance
Pages: 75-95
Volume: 3
Issue: 2
Year: 2025
Subtitle : 
File-URL: https://mf-journal.com/article/view/274
File-Format: text/xml
Handle: RePEc:bdy:modfin:v:3:y:2025:i:2:p:75-95:id:274